Dear Friends,

Bonnie and I just spent our second September as “empty-nesters” and I was brutally reminded of such last weekend as I was walking through the “B2S” section at a Walmart last weekend. My heart warmed with fond memories as I watched scores of children and parents joyfully (well, the kids were for sure) stuffing their baskets with backpacks, notebooks and #2 pencils. And, of course, for some, my favorite……….Ticonderoga sharpeners and erasers.

As I continued towards the garden center, my heart continued down memory lane of the August rituals we cherished with each of our daughters……shopping for uniforms and colorful pencil cases, conversations about the logistics of home room, speculation about their toughest classes, squeezing in one last visit to the State Fair and so on. The build up to the “FIRST DAY OF SCHOOL” was predictable and consistent each year but far from being mundane and not special.

Beyond the memories of well-documented nervous smiles on the “MORNING OF!”, I miss most the procession of the journey from home to school in our vintage FIAT Spyder. Each year, the day before, I would wash and wax the Spyder, check tire pressures and detail the interior. The morning of, before the girls arrived at the breakfast table, the Spyder was positioned in the driveway like it was at a Concours d'Elegance.

This ritual was duly followed for 16 years, beginning on the morning of K1 for daughter #1 (Isabella) and continued until finally ending on day #1 of Sophomore year for daughter #2. Gabriella, bespoke with a freshly minted driver’s license, drove solo to her Junior year, leaving misty-eyed Dad in the review mirror.

Wow, to have just one of those days back. But now, I celebrate those days through hearing the stories of my younger teammates who are developing their own set of rituals and spinning through photos of our “yesteryears” as a family.

So, for all those that are heading for, living through, or reminiscing the B2S phenomenon, we thematically devote the beginning content of this newsletter to Back-To-School.

Please see such stories as well as others such as potential shifts in consumer travel and spending this Fall, the agreement to strike California’s Fast Act, as well as the rise of the ‘Spathroom’…… And of course, our Thinking Green section.

Have a wonderful week and please get outdoors and enjoy Autumn and its ritual of the “Golding of the Forests.”

Be Well,

Jim

News That Matters.....

Back-To-School US Spending Set to Hit Record High in 2023

See-through backpacks and jean shorts are among the popular last-minute purchases ahead of the new school year, several retailers said, as heat waves sweep the U.S. and security concerns grow at many middle- and high schools.
The National Retail Federation, a retail trade group, predicts spending will surpass $135 billion, an increase of more than $24 billion from last year.
Major retailer Walmart (WMT.N) said back to school items were selling "ahead of plan" during its most recent quarter through July.
On Tuesday, Matthew Bilunas, chief financial officer at Best Buy (BBY.N), said demand for electronics was "a little better than we expected," adding that back-to-school shopping is "running a little longer and a little later into the season."

Link to Article

NIL: Matching College Athletes To Brands

On June 30, 2021, college student-athletes at all levels of play (D1, D2 and D3) gained the right to use their name, image and likeness (NIL) to generate profit under new NIL legislation—the NCAA’s way of giving all athletes equal opportunity to monetize themselves.
Under the new legislation, athletes can now participate in a wide variety of ways to use their popularity to make money, such as signing autographs, teaching lessons and camps, starting their own businesses and most importantly for many brands — taking part in advertising campaigns.
Hally Hair sponsored more than 100 athletes from almost 15 different sports at Baylor University to promote its hair dye using star women’s basketball players Aijha Blackwell, Caitlin Bickle and Jana Van Gytenbeek to lead the charge.
NIL deals allow companies to have a voice. Partnering with an athlete to take a stand for a cause, or to act in support of an ongoing current event allows companies to use that voice and make their values heard.
Five athletes at Rutgers University partnered with EcoAthletes to promote discussion around global climate change and other emerging environmental issues.

Link to Article

Inflation Sped Up as Gas Prices Rose

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.7 percent in the year through August, the report showed. That was both faster than the 3.2 percent July reading and slightly quicker than what economists had expected.
And some economists are expecting consumer demand to cool heading into the fall, which could help weigh down prices across a range of products and services as companies struggle to charge more without losing cautious customers.
Yet Doug McMillon, the chief executive at Walmart, said at a conference this week that he had been surprised by consumers’ resilience this year, and that a solid start to back-to-school shopping boded well for the holiday season.

Link to Article

Fall Travel: Shifting Trends in Vacation Destinations, Spending, Trip Length

Interestingly, booking and spending patterns have changing pretty significantly when compared with the same September-through-November period last year.
Based on its review of nearly 40,000 members’ fall trip itineraries, IMG was able to predict travelers’ top 5 international destinations for the coming cooler-weather season: Mexico; Aruba; Italy; The Bahamas; Dominican Republic.
This reveals noteworthy shift from last year's data, with travelers heavily tending toward more tropical destinations—that is, with the exception of Italy, which has continued to be phenomenally popular with tourists throughout 2023.
According to IMG, the planned duration of most customers’ fall trips is nine days—one day more than the average indicated among Fall 2022 travelers.
Among its members, IMG noted an astonishing 47-percent increase in the average insured trip cost for Fall 2023 travelers, as compared to 2022.

Link to Article

Why Millennials and Gen Zers Could Drive Discretionary Spending Down This Fall

Heading into the fall, Morning Consult’s data suggests that younger consumers — who have been key to supporting top-line spending growth with buoyant discretionary purchases this summer — may be on the verge of pulling back.
These younger consumers are increasingly prioritizing services like travel and recreation, resulting in higher spending levels and a greater share of wallet allocated to these categories relative to a year ago.
Heading into the fall, younger consumers appear most likely to be impacted by tighter credit conditions and the resumption of student loan repayments.
Major purchases made during the student loan repayment pause, such as homes and vehicles, may have saddled young adults with heavier monthly debt burdens than they had the last time they were on the hook for student loan payments.

Link to Article

Agreement is Struck to Kill Calif.'s Fast Act, Joint-Employer Proposal

Representatives of the restaurant and franchise businesses have secured an agreement to kill California’s controversial Fast Act in exchange for accepting one of the law’s most contentious provisions, the creation of a panel to set wages and working conditions for California fast-food restaurants.
The agreement also calls for shelving a legislative proposal currently under consideration that would have held restaurant franchisors accountable for the employment policies and practices of their franchisees, a measure blasted as an existential threat to restaurant franchising.
"This agreement protects local restaurant owners from significant threats that would have made it difficult to continue to operate in California,” Sean Kennedy, EVP of public affairs for the National Restaurant Association (NRA), said in a prepared statement. “It provides a more predictable and stable future for restaurants, workers, and consumers."

Link to Article

The Rise of the Spathroom: Why Wellness At Home is a Growing Interior Design Trend

In our fast-paced, digitally-driven society where the importance of self-care and mindfulness has become more significant than ever, today an increasing number of interior design clients are realising that their bathrooms should not only be a place for bathing but also a personal sanctuary, transforming them into the most ritualistic room in the home. Enter the ‘spathroom’.
A connection to nature is essential in creating that restorative feeling that is synonymous with spas and wellness spaces, meaning luxurious yet natural varieties of stone and timber should take pride of place in any spa-inspired bathroom.
In-home sauna and heat therapy spaces are also increasingly popular investments.
Programme lighting can also be installed here, allowing the client to curate their lighting depending on what they are doing or how they are feeling – whether it be bright light for applying make-up or low light for relaxing.

Link to Article

Retailers Bet Wrong on America’s Feelings About Stores

Some direct-to-consumer brands that originally forswore brick-and-mortar retail, such as Warby Parker and the bed-linens brand Parachute, have accelerated new store openings in the years since the pandemic’s peak.
These new stores are disproportionately likely to have opened in modern or high-end malls and shopping centers in higher-income areas.
More than 80 percent of retail purchases made in America are still made in person, and industry experts generally agree that that number won’t bottom out in the near future.
People want to leave their house and go out into the world and do things. Concert tickets are in huge demand, hotels are full, flights are booked up, restaurant reservations are impossible to get.

Link to Article

Deloitte Forecasts Softer Holiday Sales, Double-Digit E-Commerce Growth

According to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast, U.S. holiday season sales are estimated to grow 3.5 percent to 4.6 percent between November and January, slowing from the 7.6 percent increase tallied in 2022.
Deloitte also forecasted that e-commerce sales would grow between 10.3 percent to 12.8 percent, year-over-year, during the 2023/24 holiday season; this could see e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $278 billion and $284 billion this season.
“We expect healthy employment and income growth to keep the volume of sales growing for the 2023 holiday season,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “Inflation, which accounted for much of the increase in the value of retail sales last year, should moderate. This means the total value of retail sales will grow more slowly than last year. Our forecast also reflects a decreasing pool of pandemic-era savings, both of which will weigh on retail sales and are reflected in our lower projected growth for the season."

Link to Article

Thinking Green

In the time fraught with environmental issues that pose a potential threat to humanity, natural ecosystems as well as, our businesses and clients, we want to call to attention to those developing and embracing green strategies to reduce energy, water and paper consumption in order to protect our home, Earth.

83% of Consumers Say Frozen Foods Help Them Waste Less

A recent report by American Frozen Food Institute (AFFI) found a whopping 88% of Americans find food waste “irritating.”
Add to that the short shelf life of fresh produce, which 77% of the survey’s respondents cited as a “significant reason” why their households waste food, and it’s no surprise consumers are turning to frozen foods as means to reduce waste and save money.
AFFI data showed 83% of consumers said buying frozen food was a good solution for limiting their household’s food waste, and 84% said buying frozen food is a good way to save money.

Link to Article

Ritual Becomes First Supplement Brand To Go Public With Each Of Its Products’ Carbon Footprints

The product-level emissions data, which is included in sustainability scorecards within product image carousals on Ritual’s website, is the result of life cycle assessments of the brand’s 14 products conducted by carbon footprint management platform PlanetFWD.
Lindsay Dahl, chief impact officer for Ritual, spotlights Allbirds and Oatley as examples of brands in other merchandise categories that have made product-level carbon emission data public, and she believes Ritual following suit can help usher in a new stage of transparency across the consumer packaged goods landscape.
Along with individual product LCAs, Ritual has pledged to be net zero by 2030 and obtained CarbonFree Certification, a certification run by environmental solutions specialist ClimeCo.

Link to Article

UK Researchers Develop Self-Healing Leather Using a Medicinal Mushroom from Asia

According to the researchers, the leather has dormant fungal spores that can regrow and repair damaged areas such as scratches and holes.
[T]he scientists discovered that they only had to use the solution utilized in the initial leather production process to wake up the chlamydospores and stimulate the growth of new threads.
Self-repairing garments from this unique material and method could be possible in the next decade.

Link to Article

Lazard Private Market Advisory Consumer, Food & Retail Team

Lazard has financial advisory specialists throughout the world with experience and relationships in the consumer, leisure, food/agriculture, and e-commerce/retail industries. These bankers have played key advisory roles in some of the most important, complex and industry-defining transactions. For more information, contact one of our senior team members.